Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

224
FXUS61 KBGM 191703
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
103 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight increase in anticipated rain amounts Friday afternoon
through evening. We are still not anticipating hydrology
problems despite some resultant river rises. Also, with the next
system, confidence is increasing for rain mixing over to wet
snow late Sunday night into early Monday for parts of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Other than a few possible flurries or sprinkles today in
Central New York, our next round of areawide rain will drop
across the area Friday afternoon and evening with a passing
disturbance.

2) Temperatures climb above normal into this weekend, but
then fall back below normal early next week. During that
transition, rain potentially changes over to some wet snow
Sunday night into early Monday for parts of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper trough axis over the area today, will lift to our
northeast. However, as it does so, shortwaves will still be
translating through the region. There is a lot of low level dry
air to overcome, so despite radar echoes across the area
overnight, almost all of it has been virga not even reaching
the ground. Each passing shortwave though will attempt to top-
down moisten the atmospheric column, eventually succeeding in
causing a few flurries today at least for parts of Central NY.
These will mix with or change to sprinkles as temperatures reach
upper 30s to mid 40s for highs. Precipitation will likely not
reach Northeast PA though it will still be mostly cloudy.
However, our next areawide rain is anticipated to arrive Friday.

A fast-moving better-defined short wave will ride to the
east/southeast from south-central Canada through the Great Lakes
into the Northeast Friday. Out ahead of the short wave a brief ridge
will amplify and lift a warm air mass north across PA and NY,
sending temperatures into the mid 40s to mid 50s. While much of
the area will get away with a dry morning, midday through
afternoon the shortwave will crash into the area with a good
batch of rain, lingering into Friday night. Model trends are
yielding about a half to three quarters of an inch of rain in
Central NY, and quarter to half inch in Northeast PA. This will
be enough to cause muddy ground and eventual river rises. River
ensembles show potential of a few points reaching back above
action stage yet very low probability of reaching minor flood
stage. Sherburne and Cortland generally around only 10-15
percent odds for that with all other points even less.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An amplifying ridge behind the departing short wave will trigger
another push of warm air for the weekend. 850mb temperatures of
+6 to +10 deg C mixing to the the surface will allow highs on
Saturday and Sunday to rise into the upper 40s north of the NY
Thruway (where a weak snowpack remains) and well into the 50s
to lower 60s south, especially Sunday just ahead of the next
stronger cold front.

Models are trending towards a later Sunday cold front passage if
not even Sunday evening. However, there is also increasing
confidence for a more amplifying pattern - part of the reason
for a later timing - with a pretty decent punch of colder air
late Sunday night into Monday. So after rain develops Sunday
afternoon, it is appearing more probable for it to mix with or
change to wet snow Sunday night into early Monday before ending,
at least for a chunk of the area. The National Blend of Models
has 40-50 percent chance for an inch or more of accumulation
for much of Central NY especially higher terrain, and 20-30
percent odds of reaching 3 inches. However, even farther south,
a measurable amount snow currently has 35-50 percent odds for
reaching across the Twin Tiers-Northern Poconos-Catskills even
if not amounting to much. Something to keep an eye on for next
Monday morning commute.

The air mass behind the cold front looks to be quite dry and
cold, which would likely drop temperatures back into the 30s and
lower 40s for highs, and upper teens to mid 20s for over night
lows for the first part of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some light precipitation can be expected at RME and SYR through
the afternoon, with a TEMPO for potential MVFR restrictions.
Otherwise, VFR elsewhere, with some gusts until sunset.

Outlook:

Friday through Saturday...A chance for additional rain/snow
showers as a clipper moves through the region; low confidence on
timing.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as another front pushes through
the area from the NW.

Monday through Tuesday...High pressure building in across the
Northeast with VFR conditions expected aside from the potential
for morning fog.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...KL