Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

129
FXUS61 KBGM 182351
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
751 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)An unusually strong low pressure system for Junes passes
northeast of the region today. This system will bring showers,
thunderstorms and a lot of wind. Greatest chance for widespread
showers and storms will be early afternoon.

3) High pressure pushes in on Friday with cooler and drier
conditions through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A highly anomalous low pressure system tracks north and east of the
region today. Current model guidance indicates the central pressure
may fall to around 988 mb, which is approximately five standard
deviations below normal for this time of year. This unusually strong
system will bring a tight pressure gradient across the region,
with a cold front moving through mid day. As a result, strong
winds are expected across the area, accompanied by showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. The SPC
has expanded the Slight Risk farther west into central NY. Given
the highly sheared environment, isolaed tornadoes are also
possible, although damaging winds remain the primary hazard. A
Tornado watch was issued ahead of the line as strong to severe
thunderstorms with embedded tornadoes may develop through the
early afternoon.

The line of showers and storms associated with the cold front
is moving relatively quickly through the region, with the
tornado threat expected to diminish after 3PM. This is a classic
low-CAPE high shear environment driven largely by strong
synoptic forcing. Consequently, any strong shower or
thunderstorms that develops will have the potential to produce
wind gusts exceeding 55 mph. Even outside of thunderstorms,
winds will remain elevated throughout the day as the front
pushes through and the pressure gradient strengthens. Wind
Advisories remain in effect through 6 PM this evening for the
Eastern Finger Lakes region and western Mohawk Valley, although
strong gusts may also be possible outside the Advisory areas.

Behind the main line of showers and thunderstorms, CAMs guidance
continues to indicate some isolated showers following the front
late this afternoon. These lingering showers are not expected
to be as impactful as the earlier line. As drier air filters
into the region later this afternoon and evening, showers will
gradually come to an end, although gusty winds will persist into
the evening. High pressure will then build into the region
tonight and continue into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

No major changes in the forecast for the end of the week and
this weekend. Surface high pressure will build in behind the
cold front for Friday. This will bring drier and cooler
conditions through the weekend with low humidity. However, there
will remain some upper troughing over the region, so can`t rule
out some diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity around the
peak heating hours of the afternoon. The next chance for
widespread rain will come towards the beginning of next week.
However, there remains to be a lot of run to run model
inconsistency with this systems track and timing at this time.
It is possible this system could miss most of our region
completely depending on how the pattern unfolds in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A couple of stray showers may pass over SYR and RME. Otherwise,
dry conditions are expected tonight. Guidance is showing some
pop up showers Friday afternoon that develop between SYR and
ITH. There is uncertainty if these would make it to ELM and BGM
by the end of the TAF period. While confidence is low, tempo
groups were added to SYR and ITH for showers and MVFR
visibilities. MVFR ceilings are expected at SYR and RME
overnight and into Friday morning. Guidance hints at Fuel Alt at
RME as lower ceilings will linger there longer. There is some
uncertainty on sky cover as MVFR ceilings may creep south into
ITH as well.

While winds are expected to gradually become calmer this
evening, they will stay gusty overnight with gusts of 15 to 20
kts possible at all terminals. Winds stay westerly tomorrow
though peak gusts will be closer to 25 to 30 kts.


Outlook:

Friday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR, though isolated to
scattered showers possible each afternoon with associated
intermittent restrictions. Westerly wind gusts could exceed 20
knots Saturday afternoons.

Late Sunday night through Tuesday...Wave of low pressure with
rain, restrictions, and possible embedded thunder. Rain chances
decrease Tuesday but lingering showers will still be possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ES/MPK
AVIATION...BTL